APUS Richard G. Trefry Archives | Home: Homeland Security

Ryan A. Kaufman
Program: Homeland Security: Capstone-Thesis: Master of Arts (MA)
Awarded: April 2022
Capstone Instructor: Dr. Kathryn Lambert
Abstract: Humans regularly employ heuristics to reduce complex judgments of probability and frequency; however, these techniques usually produce errors due to cognitive biases. Intelligence analysts very likely use these same heuristic principles while examining large amounts of data to establish assessments on future enemy courses of action, therefore subconsciously injecting cognitive biases into assessments that can significantly alter national security outcomes. Alternative analysis is a technique analysts can use to alleviate potential biases in their assessments. This study compares three well-documented, intelligence-driven national security outcomes, the terror attacks on September 11, 2001, the pursuit of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, and the Israeli bombing of a Syrian nuclear reactor to determine if alternative analysis influences national security objectives. While doctrine prescribes using alternative analysis in the Analysis & Production phase of the intelligence cycle, introducing competing hypotheses throughout all phases institutionalizes a questioning motive early in the intelligence process, which may provide early insights to prevent catastrophic conclusions.

Patricia J. Bruno
Program: Homeland Security: Capstone-Thesis: Master of Arts (MA)
Awarded: August 2016
Capstone Instructor: Dr. Kathryn Lambert
Abstract: The CARVER matrix, MSRAM, and ORM contribute accurate risk assessments; however, the current risk methodologies are not readily replicated for use by the first-responders responsible to react to mass casualty events. The intention of this work is to contribute a singular risk assessment methodology to be utilized by first-responders prior to and during a potential mass casualty event that may be replicated with uniformity across the nation. First-responders will be interviewed to ascertain levels of risk perception and previous research will be analyzed in order to form the hybrid-risk assessment for first-responders. The end result is the Bruno Method, a First-Responder Risk Assessment.

Matthew W. West
Program: Homeland Security: Capstone-Thesis: Master of Arts (MA)
Awarded: February 2013
Capstone Instructor: Dr. Edwin Bundy
Abstract: This paper evaluates the threat that an electromagnetic pulse presents to the infrastructure of the United States of America. Several key reference materials were studied and evaluated for this research project. Of particular interest, the Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack: Critical National Infrastructures (2008) is the primary reference of this research project. This U.S. government publication is the most comprehensive overview of EMP threats that is available through the public domain. This document, coupled with online publications such as Future Science (Emanuelson, 2008), help examine just how vulnerable the United States is to an EMP threat and how the nation, as a whole, is not prepared for such an event.