Alternative Analysis Influence on the Intelligence Process: A Comparative Case StudyRyan A. Kaufman
Program: Homeland Security: Capstone-Thesis: Master of Arts (MA)
Awarded: April 2022
Capstone Instructor: Dr. Kathryn Lambert
Abstract: Humans regularly employ heuristics to reduce complex judgments of probability and frequency; however, these techniques usually produce errors due to cognitive biases. Intelligence analysts very likely use these same heuristic principles while examining large amounts of data to establish assessments on future enemy courses of action, therefore subconsciously injecting cognitive biases into assessments that can significantly alter national security outcomes. Alternative analysis is a technique analysts can use to alleviate potential biases in their assessments. This study compares three well-documented, intelligence-driven national security outcomes, the terror attacks on September 11, 2001, the pursuit of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, and the Israeli bombing of a Syrian nuclear reactor to determine if alternative analysis influences national security objectives. While doctrine prescribes using alternative analysis in the Analysis & Production phase of the intelligence cycle, introducing competing hypotheses throughout all phases institutionalizes a questioning motive early in the intelligence process, which may provide early insights to prevent catastrophic conclusions.