APUS Richard G. Trefry Archives | Home: National Security Studies

Daniel Stricklin
Program:National Security Studies: Capstone-Thesis: Master of Arts (MA)
Awarded: May 2025
Capstone Instructor: Dr. Cynthia Nolan
Abstract: This thesis examines when autonomous and unmanned maritime systems demonstrate measurable advantages over traditional naval assets in maritime security operations. Through computational experimentation utilizing the POWer environment, this study analyses performance across six autonomy degrees and four interdependence levels. The methodology of this study employs a socio-technical systems theory in order to model complex interactions between technical capabilities, human factors, organizational elements, and environmental contexts. The findings of this study reveal that unmanned systems (degrees 1-3) demonstrate significant advantages in missions that require persistent presence, operations in extreme environments, and scenarios which there are high personnel risk but standardized procedures. However, they show limitations in complex decision-making environments and integrated operations. Organizational structures significantly impact unmanned system effectiveness as well, with naval hierarchies potentially impeding their optimal performance. This research provides a framework for understanding when autonomous systems offer clear operational benefits as well as recommends organizational adaptations that aim to enhance integration in distributed maritime operations (DMOs).

Constance Morgan C. Dumadag
Program: National Security Studies: Capstone-Thesis: Master of Arts (MA)
Awarded: May 2024
Capstone Instructor: Dr. Cynthia Nolan
Abstract: Why does public opinion on climate change differ between the United States (US) and the European Union (EU)? The vast number of studies on public opinion show that scholars generally agree on the many factors that influence public opinion. However, they disagree on which factors are more influential or powerful in changing the public's views. Various public opinion polls and literature were examined to explore and analyze multiple factors – the media, political parties, geography, demographics, cost-benefit tradeoffs, and events – that have shaped public opinion on climate change. While there are more, the research suggests some factors have more influence and power when shaping public opinion on specific topics. This research paper takes a qualitative approach, utilizing qualitative and quantitative data, along with public opinion theory, to answer the research question and test the hypothesis. Focusing on the most influential and powerful factors, this study finds that the media and political parties explain why public opinion on climate change differs between the US and the EU.

Catherine Tighe
Program: National Security Studies: Capstone-Thesis: Master of Arts (MA)
Awarded: October 2023
Capstone Instructor: Dr. Brian Blodgett
Abstract: The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is an immense project that aims to create and connect an infrastructure network from China to the rest of the world. If finished successfully, it would pose as the foremost national security threat to the United States, because of the possible breadth of foreign influence. This paper will determine the effectiveness of China in using the BRI as a smart power tool against participating nations. To do that, this paper conducted a case study on Pakistan, Poland, Malaysia, and Djibouti to analyze how China influenced each country through hard and soft power. Using Nye’s model of smart power, this paper compared each of the nations against the five BRI priorities, the attractiveness of the BRI, and economic factors. From the case studies, it was determined that China is not using the BRI effectively as a smart power tool. China is failing to change the narrative of the BRI’s purpose and follow the projects to completion. Those two factors are preventing China from reaching the BRI’s full potential.

Stephen Gualdo Ford
Program: National Security Studies: Capstone-Thesis: Master of Arts (MA)
Awarded: May 2022
Capstone Instructor: Dr. Cynthia M. Nolan
Abstract: This paper will examine the rationality for the pursuit of nuclear weapons in developing states. The pursuit of a nuclear weapons program does not meet the criteria for rational policy, but states may do so without being deterred by rational costs because of conditions relating to state power, legitimacy, domestic support, threat credibility, ideological assumptions, cost, and international norms. The research method is a qualitative, small-N case study using the Islamic Republic of Iran within the time constraints of the 1979 Islamic Revolution to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and the most recent attempts by the Biden Administration to reengage with Iran to comply with the plan. This study demonstrates that Iran does not need to build a nuclear weapon but may continue to allow the world to believe that it is a nuclear threshold state to accomplish its foreign policy and defense objectives.

Sara J. Whipple
Program: National Security Studies: Capstone-Thesis: Master of Arts (MA)
Awarded: February 2017
Capstone Instructor: Dr. Cynthia M. Nolan
Abstract: The threat of a homegrown terrorist attack is the greatest threat facing the United States. Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS)-inspired attacks are more destructive and more dangerous than ISIS-directed attacks because perpetrators are harder to identify. In this study, five cases were applied to the three models of radicalization to determine which best describes the phenomena and how effective they are to help authorities anticipate cases of homegrown radicalization. None of the models tested were flawless in predicting the radicalization process of would-be homegrown terrorists. Silber and Bhatt’s (2007) model was the only model in which all elements of the model were observed in the five case studies. However, elements of Gartenstein-Ross and Grossman’s (2009) model were easier to identify and categorize and would be the most effective tool for predicting radical behavior but it also requires family, friends, and alert community members to recognize the shift in behavior and report it. As ISIS becomes more savvy and encourages its followers to become better at evading authorities, these models will become less effective as tools to disrupt plots and prevent future attacks.

Dwayne R. Bierly
Program: National Security Studies: Capstone-Thesis: Master of Arts (MA)
Awarded: November 2016
Capstone Instructor: Dr. Donna Kenley
Abstract: The National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2016 directed the Secretary of Defense to develop a DOD strategy to counter unconventional warfare threats posed by adversarial state and non-state actors. This thesis examined special operations forces capability to support a DOD counter unconventional warfare strategy. Research incorporated qualitative content analysis and case study approach exploring data on countering unconventional warfare. The U.S. Army War College Strategy Model end, ways, and means was used to examine U.S. special operations forces’ capability to support a DOD counter unconventional strategy and provided the framework to display data on Russia’s unconventional warfare activities in Ukraine. Research findings proved special operations forces activities have a primary and supporting role to a DOD counter unconventional warfare strategy and building partner capacity would be instrumental in countering adversarial state and non-state actors unconventional warfare campaigns.

Dustin J. Taylor
Program: National Security Studies: Capstone-Thesis: Master of Arts (MA)
Awarded: May 2016
Capstone Instructor: Dr. Cynthia Nolan
Abstract: The purpose of this thesis is to explore Supreme Court influences, more specifically the effect of US foreign conflict on electronic surveillance cases. Electronic surveillance is a primary contingent of the Congressional Authorization for the Use of Military Force (AUMF) and a hotly debated issue in the 21st century. However, the contentious use of electronic surveillance dates back to the Supreme Court case of Olmstead v. United States (1928). There have been various other electronic surveillance cases brought before the Supreme Court but the five selected in this case study are a mixture of peace and wartime cases that illustrate existential influences to include foreign conflict, political, and legislation. The remaining four selected cases were Katz v. United States (1967), US v. US District Court of Eastern Michigan (1972), Kyllo v. United States (2001), and Jones v. United States (2012). Research of the aforementioned cases led to the following research question: to what extent does US foreign conflict influence Supreme Court rulings on the use of electronic surveillance? After delving into each case three variables were identified as influential: foreign conflict or lack thereof, significant political influence, and legislation that governed the use of electronic surveillance. Collectively, the variables and judicial Segal-Cover scores contributed to a complete analysis of the five selected Supreme Court cases and a conclusive answer. US foreign conflict does not influence Supreme Court decisions regarding electronic surveillance cases.

Chad D. Maddox
Program: National Security Studies: Capstone-Thesis: Master of Arts (MA)
Awarded: November 2015
Capstone Instructor: Dr. Donna Kenley
Abstract: Boko Haram remains a destabilizing force in Nigeria and gains international attention because of its brutal terrorism. State efforts to defeat the group contribute to its capability and popular support. The author conducted qualitative research using grounded theory applied through a case study and data analysis that incorporated the examination of more than 400 terrorist groups. Research illuminated the importance of defining the goals and strategies of Boko Haram and chronicling past Nigerian state responses to accurately determine how it will most likely end defined by Seth Jones and Martin Libicki: politicization, policing, military force, or victory. Analysis of Boko Haram and the Nigerian state indicate that the group’s goals are regime change and social control, pursued through intimidation, provocation, and polarization. Findings conclude that Boko Haram’s terrorist activity likely end due to policing, which requires Nigerian security forces to become a legitimate force committed to rule of law and human rights, the ability of the Nigerian government to provide governmental support to its geographically isolated population, and the capture and prosecution of Boko Haram’s leadership.

Eric Wilson
Program: National Security Studies: Capstone-Thesis: Master of Arts (MA)
Awarded: May 2015
Capstone Instructor: Dr. Donna Kenley
Abstract: This thesis examines a U.S. foreign policy strategy called Building Partner Capacity (BPC) used to support on-going efforts to protect U.S. enduring national interests. BPC activities build/enhance the capacity of U.S. allies and international partners to empower them to provide for their countries’ own internal security or support operations for external security reasons regionally or internationally. This thesis uses the International Relations theory to examine four of six regional U.S. Geographic Combatant Commands (CENTCOM, AFRICOM, EUCOM and PACOM) with regards to the COCOMs regional mission, security threats, BPC activities, and identified the national security benefits from BPC activities. Dependent (Protecting U.S. national interests at home and abroad) and Independent (Peace, security and stability at the state, regional and international levels; power distribution) variables were used as part of the thesis framework. Research findings in terms of ends, ways, means and benefits proved that BPC activities support U.S. foreign policy efforts to bring security to the international system; and identified the security benefits, security assistance and cooperation programs related to building partner capacity to protect U.S. national security and interests.

Keith J. Rossmiller
Program: National Security Studies: Capstone-Thesis: Master of Arts (MA)
Awarded: November 2014
Capstone Instructor: Dr. Donna L. Kenley
Abstract: Section 541 of the National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2010 significantly altered the Department of Defense missing persons accounting community’s vision, strategy, and tactics. For the first time, this mandate set requirements for 200 identifications annually beginning in 2015, as well as a recommended goal of 350 personnel accounted for per year by 2020. This research incorporated the chaos theory and functionalist approach theoretical frameworks, applying a qualitative case study approach, while performing content data analysis to explore issues with the missing persons accounting community. The findings revealed the lack of cooperation between the Defense Prisoner of War/Missing Personnel Office and Joint POW/MIA Accounting Command led to years of dysfunction and the failure to plan for the congressionally directed increase in annual identifications. The findings from this examination demonstrate the 2010 NDAA requirement to account for at least 200 missing persons annually will greatly influence the accounting community’s initial accounting results and future accomplishments. In conclusion, those agencies tasked to account for missing DOD service members are unlikely to fulfill the congressional obligation in 2015 and beyond.