APUS ePress: Intelligence Studies

Matthew E. Clinard
Program: Intelligence Studies: Capstone-Thesis: Master of Arts (MA)
Awarded: February 2018
Capstone Instructor: Dr. Robert Redding
Abstract: The purpose of this research was to identify key characteristics and tactics of Russian disinformation operations. By examining several case studies through content analysis and by conducting a Qualitative Comparative Approach (QCA), this research found that the most common tactics used by the Russian disinformation apparatus included: a targeted media campaign, social media as a tool, trolls on social media sites, fake news stories, and fake interviews. Additionally, this research found that the most common environmental variables that make Russian disinformation likely included: a target nation that was a former Soviet territory, a Russian speaking population, a nation with policies that lean towards the West, is a NATO member, borders Russia, and has access to Russian media broadcasts within their media architecture. In conclusion, this research has provided the groundwork, as well as, a central source of information regarding Russian disinformation operations that will allow future operations to be identified, further research to be completed in specific geographic areas, and the growth of information operations to counter Russian disinformation. Lastly, this study has also identify countries like Poland and Georgia as potentially vulnerable areas to Russian disinformation, based solely on the variables that create a fertile ground for Russian disinformation.

Frank C. Danesy
Program: Intelligence Studies: Capstone-Thesis: Master of Arts (MA)
Awarded: August 2017
Capstone Instructor: Dr. Paul Medhurst
Abstract: Insider espionage is a sinister crime and individuals guilty of it can face stiff penalties. Nevertheless, there have been 180 cases of insider espionage or comparable acts against the United States during the period 1975 to 2008 alone. In the Intelligence Community, the acronym MICE (money, ideology, compromise, and ego) is often used to explain why someone becomes a spy. Thrill-seeking, divided loyalties, disgruntlement, ingratiation and recognition have also been cited as motives. The purpose of this study is to determine whether such motives consistently precede acts of insider espionage and whether these motives exclusively apply to insider spies. The study reports findings suggesting that such motives do consistently apply to individuals who have committed espionage but they also apply to individuals who have not. It can therefore be concluded that these motives are necessary but not sufficient to explain why someone becomes a spy and that other contributing factors (i.e. impaired judgment and triggers) must be considered.

Stephanie A. Bloomer
Program: Intelligence Studies: Capstone-Thesis: Master of Arts (MA)
Awarded: February 2016
Capstone Instructor: Dr. Curtis Brandt Smith
Abstract: Sexual espionage is a practice that has been well documented throughout history as an effective means of collecting human intelligence, which continues to produce impressive results despite the fact that the tenets of this method are now widely known. This study seeks to explain this phenomenon by demonstrating a correlation between high sensation seeking individuals and the tendency to seek out and engage in adrenaline-producing activities, which can oftentimes include high-risk sexual behaviors. A specific focus was placed upon the prevalent nature of the high sensation seeking personality trait within Special Operations communities, and how this increases the susceptibility of these organizations to honey trap operations. A qualitative case study was conducted in order to explain why these individuals are inherently more vulnerable to sexual espionage tactics, and this information was then utilized to generate countermeasures that can assist in reducing the vulnerability of American SOF personnel. The complex threat environment that the United States is currently facing will necessitate a full-scale approach to vi intelligence collection, and the benefits of engaging in sexual espionage should not be overlooked or underestimated; therefore, targeting recommendations have also been provided as a means of exploiting this similar tendency in foreign SOF organizations.

Zachary R. Fonk
Program: Intelligence Studies: Capstone-Thesis: Master of Arts (MA)
Awarded: February 2016
Capstone Instructor: Dr. Marian Leerburger
Abstract: In the midst of a collapsing Iraqi state lies a peaceful, prospering territory known as Iraqi Kurdistan. Existing as a federal territory in Iraq, Iraqi Kurdistan has sought independence for decades. A lack of international support and fear of negative consequences has kept independence at bay. The purpose of this research is to determine the effects that an independent, fully sovereign Iraqi Kurdistan would have on regional stability in Western Asia. An Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) is used to test several hypotheses with numerous independent variables that could affect internal stability, regional relationships, and the war with ISIL. The findings indicate that if Iraqi Kurdistan can utilize an earned sovereignty approach to achieving independence, there is a possibility for increased regional stability across Western Asia. One critical factor for greater stability is Turkey’s position on independence, which could greatly affect Iraqi Kurdistan’s economy and the country’s success as a state. Other critical factors include gaining international recognition as a new state and the nature of future relationships between Baghdad and Erbil.

Kreg A. Lesage
Program: Intelligence Studies: Capstone-Thesis: Master of Arts (MA)
Awarded: August 2016
Capstone Instructor: Dr. Paul Medhurst
Abstract: The U.S. Intelligence Community is ineffective at capturing, retaining and passing on operational knowledge to future intelligence officers. The purpose of this research was to identify effective strategies for planning and executing successful intelligence operations in the future. This study utilized case studies and a mixed-method approach to identify key factors in the success or failure of four prominent naval intelligence operations in the Twentieth Century. It was hypothesized that operations in which intelligence planning was thorough and deliberate, and whose execution provided the maximum amount of operational flexibility would be qualitatively more successful than those in which planning and execution were not as precise. This was not entirely the case however, as the primary elements of success were found to be a narrow scope of operations, small planning and execution teams, and effective communication. Recommendations which capture this operational knowledge were made immediately following the conclusion of this research.

Angela M. Romero
Program: Intelligence Studies: Capstone-Thesis: Master of Arts (MA)
Awarded: May 2016
Capstone Instructor: Dr. Nicole Drumhiller
Abstract: This study furthers research on political leaders through the lens of integrative complexity. Integrative complexity has been used as a measurement tool in political psychology for more than four decades. This study will further research on one of the most challenging endeavors facing integrative complexity scholars – an agreed upon automated scoring system. The subjects are Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump who are the leading candidates for their respective political parties in the 2016 United States presidential election. The study will use the automated integrative complexity scoring system developed by Conway et al. (2014) to analyze selected content from 2016 debate transcripts, issue position speeches, and terrorism related interview questions from June 2015 through March 2016 to measure the integrative complexity levels of both subjects during the campaign. Findings are consistent with previous research that liberal politicians generally score higher than their conservative counterparts on integrative complexity. The findings also support previous research that leaders exhibit decreased integrative complexity during stressful situations. The findings did not support previous evidence that leaders operate at decreased integrative complexity levels while campaigning. The study ultimately furthers the body of research evolving the latest automated integrative complexity scoring system.

Paul T. Clark
Program: Intelligence Studies: Capstone-Thesis: Master of Arts (MA)
Awarded: February 2015
Capstone Instructor: Dr. Philip Vos Fellman
Abstract: This research paper will identify whether civilian criminal courts or military commissions are better suited to prosecute international terrorism suspects. Recent court cases from both legal systems will be compared and reviewed for trial length, conviction and appeal rates, and length of sentence, the more successful legal system for prosecuting terrorism suspects will be identified. Review of the court data demonstrates that civilian criminal courts are more effective in prosecuting international terrorism cases than military commissions because federal courts have trusted rules of evidence and a larger body of case law that can be used to establish precedent for convictions.

Elyse M. Crimm
Program: Intelligence Studies: Capstone-Thesis: Master of Arts (MA)
Awarded: May 2015
Capstone Instructor: Dr. Marian Leerburger
Abstract: This research will examine the U.S. lethal use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) in the Middle East and analyze the positive and negative effects on the U.S. counterterrorism strategy. UAV use against terrorists in the Middle East offers many advantages including long loiter times and pilot safety, but also offers disadvantages including negative public reaction. A qualitative methodology is used through an extensive literature review relating to the effects of lethal UAV use in the Middle East. The qualitative study focused on the U.S. Counterterrorism Strategy, legal considerations, success rates and public opinion/potential blowback of lethal UAV strikes. Variables are analyzed through the psychological lenses of attitude and emotion to set reaction baselines. These baselines are then used to predict future counterterrorism strategy effectiveness.The analysis finds that the U.S. counterterrorism strategy success will be negatively impacted due to negative public opinion and increased violence in reaction to the strikes.

James G. Howard
Program: Intelligence Studies: Capstone-Thesis: Master of Arts (MA)
Awarded: November 2015
Capstone Instructor: Dr. Robert Redding
Abstract: In an age of evolving and asymmetric warfare, Information Operations represent a useful tool to shape any conflict from a distance. Its effectiveness is particularly valuable given the current climate of fiscal uncertainty and the low-risk of human casualties it presents. The study of the conflict with the Islamic State provides an ideal opportunity to determine what comprises an effective Information Operations campaign. Using a non-experimental, qualitative approach that relies on causal reasoning, this research analyzes prior Information Operations used by and against both the Islamic State and similar terror groups such as Al-Qaeda and Al-Shabaab in order to identify aspects of effective Information Operations. The research conducted shows that Information Operations targeting Islamic terror groups are effective in causing disruption, provided they have access to the correct target audience, the utilization of digital mediums, and leverage using the themes of barbarism and the Islamic State label of “Daesh”. The key to identifying effective Information Operations ultimately lies in the understanding of the target audience through ethnography, and the knowledge of how Game Theory and Focalism form the basis of the propaganda effort.

Stefan P. Katz
Program: Intelligence Studies: Capstone-Thesis: Master of Arts (MA)
Awarded: May 2015
Capstone Instructor: Dr. Marian Leerburger
Abstract: In 2014, the first-ever National Strategy for the National Network of Fusion Centers took effect with hopes of resolving persistent issues plaguing the 78 fusion centers throughout the United States. The purpose of this study is to evaluate every detail of this new strategy and forecast if the strategy will be able to attain the intended improvements. To do so, this study uses a causal-comparative research methodology, which offers a diagnosis for a problem along with a prognosis for a possible solution. By scrutinizing the strategy's vision and proposed means for achieving goals, this study expects the strategy to yield major improvements of current fusion center deficiencies. However, not all root-causes of persistent fusion center deficiencies are addressed by the strategy, increasing the likelihood for continued problems. This study identifies several gaps that fusion center administrators must address in order to fully realize the intentions of this new strategy. Failure to do so would render the new strategy only partially successful, as fusion centers continue to be only somewhat effective and unnecessarily dangerous to the essence of liberty and the American way of life.

Caesar J. Nafrada
Program: Intelligence Studies: Capstone-Thesis: Master of Arts (MA)
Awarded: February 2015
Capstone Instructor: Dr. John P. Dolan
Abstract: This paper examines the transformation of the role of U.S. Air Force intelligence during Operations Enduring Freedom and Iraqi Freedom (OEF/OIF) in order to determine if its intelligence officers are more or less prepared to face future conventional, near-peer threats. This thesis utilizes a singular case study with embedded units represented by two hypothetical career arcs; one that started at least a year prior to OEF/OIF, and one that started during the height of OEF/OIF. Pattern-matching analysis and a simple matrix are used to compare the two career arcs across several factors: doctrine, tradecraft, training, career progression, and deployment experiences. The findings reveal that it is plausible that the last 13 years of combat operations have had a detrimental impact on the traditional roles and missions of air intelligence professionals in terms of being prepared to face conventional, near-peer threats. The Air Force is currently postured to continue to provide world-class intelligence support to warfighters in an irregular warfare environment, but the service may struggle to rediscover its more traditional roles and missions that would be necessary to face conventional threats.

Kennth E. Webb
Program: Intelligence Studies: Capstone-Thesis: Master of Arts (MA)
Awarded: May 2015
Capstone Instructor: Dr. Joseph DiRenzo III
Abstract: When initiating Operation Protective Edge, a fifty-day military offensive operation, Israel stated that it was responding to Hamas that had attacked Israel with rocket fire. Protective Edge started July 8, 2014, with Israeli airstrikes targeting Hamas, then continued with Israeli ground troops entering Gaza on July 17, and ended August 26, 2014, when an open-ended cease fire mediated by Egypt was reached. The cumulative military and civilian deaths amounted to over two-thousand Palestinians and about seventy Israelis. The research analyzes how targeted killings could have been used efficaciously to Israel’s military, economic, and political advantage. Mixed methods are used with a concurrent embedded correlation approach for an explanatory quantitative case study based on qualitative sources. The thesis demonstrates that surgical preemptive strikes transitioning to a ground offensive operation to eliminate the tunnels used by Hamas for terrorist operations would provide more definitive threat neutralization, while reducing costs and negative media repercussions to Israel.

Mason Ryan Davenport
Program: Intelligence Studies: Capstone-Thesis: Master of Arts (MA)
Awarded: August 2014
Capstone Instructor: Dr. Lydia Kostopoulos
Abstract: Since 9/11, and the subsequent 2001 postal anthrax attacks, the U.S. government has spent billions of dollars to defend the country against bioterrorism. Yet, examples of bioterrorism in the 21st century are noticeably lacking; a litany of academics and scientific experts argue that terror groups, like al-Qaeda, could never conceivably carry out a bioterror attack. This paper examines in-depth the legitimacy of al-Qaeda’s reported bioweapons pursuit and the factors necessary to conduct a successful bioterror attack on U.S. soil. Research consisted mainly of qualitative analysis of academic journals, media reports, and official al-Qaeda statements. The results of the study indicated many significant hurdles involved in either acquiring or producing a bioterror agent. Furthermore, al-Qaeda’s desire to use bioweapons, long considered to be self-evident, may be diminishing in light of the group’s many setbacks. While bioterrorism will always pose a threat to U.S. sovereignty, it is considerably less likely than many policymakers stress, especially in light of post-9/11 biodefense measures.

Eugenie de Silva
Program: Intelligence Studies: Capstone-Thesis: Master of Arts (MA)
Awarded: May 2014
Capstone Instructor: Dr. Joseph DiRenzo III
Abstract: The presented research work examined the ways in which six verbal cues and fourteen non-verbal cues could be utilized as a means of detecting deception in individual-level cases. The focus of this research was the development of a model that would be useful for law enforcement and intelligence personnel who must detect deception on a timely, constant basis without reliance on technology. Through this research, a novel model “Determining and Evaluating Truth through Explicit Cue Testing (DETECT)” was developed. The work utilized a mixed-methods approach to analysis; thus, an analysis of the thirty participant interviews, in addition to a further non-parametric statistical analysis was conducted. Accordingly, it was recognized that the DETECT model was able to correctly identify deception/truthfulness in twenty-eight of the thirty cases. The research received explicit approval from the Institutional Review Board (IRB) prior to the commencement of the research. The work further proved that the model is statistically acceptable at a 5% significance level. Therefore, there is a 95% confidence interval for this model. This means the power of this model is 95%. The work concluded with the determination that whilst the model can be used without a background in the detection of deception, the undergoing of a six-week training course may help to raise the statistical probabilities of correctly determining the truthfulness of an individual’s statements.

Robert James Kelly
Program: Intelligence Studies: Capstone-Thesis: Master of Arts (MA)
Awarded: January 2014
Capstone Instructor: Dr. Robin Thompson
Abstract: The study of the intelligence failure and strategic surprise that initiated the beginning of the Yom Kippur War has been an endeavor for many scholars since the hostilities ceased 40 years ago. This paper analyzes several articles that have attempted to find which party of the three mentioned in Dahl’s thesis of 2004, the Intelligence Community, policy maker, or deceiver, is responsible for Israel’s ill preparedness for the Arabs’ attack. Since those academics only had access to open source materials, the purpose of this research project is to discover if access to declassified documents found on the CIA’s website, as well as recently released testimonies from the Agranat Commission would have changed the views expressed by the authors in their articles. Using the quantitative methodology of correlation and regression analysis this paper found that declassified documents could have altered the theories of most of the scholars.

Jason Deane Milner
Program: Intelligence Studies: Capstone-Thesis: Master of Arts (MA)
Awarded: February 2014
Capstone Instructor: Dr. Robin Thompson
Abstract: This research set out to look for ways in which the theories of linguistic relativity could be applied within the discipline of warning intelligence. It is a qualitative study that draws on the research of cognitive scientists and experts within the intelligence disciplines. This study shows that the theory of linguistic relativity is supported by empirical evidence, and that these concepts may be applicable to battling bias within warning intelligence. In the end, it was discovered that what is needed is further research to identify and test for the effects of linguistic relativity on warning analysts.

Keith Charles Robinson
Program: Intelligence Studies: Capstone-Thesis: Master of Arts (MA)
Awarded: January 2014
Capstone Instructor: Dr. Jose E. Mora
Abstract: The United States has a border security problem along the Southwest border. National attention is focused on securing the 2,000-mile land border but the Southwest maritime border (SWMB) along the California coastline is generally neglected. This thesis presents an exploratory study to determine what is necessary for the United States to secure the SWMB. Because any efforts to secure the land border are insignificant if the maritime domain is easily exploited, the SWMB requires national attention. National strategies charge border security agencies with creating a whole-of-government approach to their missions but do not provide the legislative mandates or fiscal support necessary to enhance interagency coordination. This thesis proposes using the successes of the Joint Interagency Task Force-South and lessons from the Goldwater-Nichols Act to create an Interagency Task Force along the SWMB. As maritime smuggling increases, the SWMB presents an opportunity to generate the collaboration needed to secure the border.

Edward F. Scott III
Program: Intelligence Studies: Capstone-Thesis: Master of Arts (MA)
Awarded: November 2014
Capstone Instructor: Dr. James Hess
Abstract: Fusion centers were created after 9/11/01 to increase information sharing and improve intelligence production by utilizing information collected at the state and local level to enhance intelligence production. Fusion centers and their law enforcement counterparts engage in various parts of the intelligence cycle to aid fusion centers in creating quality intelligence products. A 2012 Senate report revealed that fusion centers are failing to produce quality intelligence. This thesis presents an exploratory research study to determine how to more effectively integrate fusion centers and state and local law enforcement officers together in utilization of the intelligence cycle to improve fusion center intelligence production. The researcher conducted interviews with federal, state, and local fusion center analysts in addition to law enforcement personnel associated with their fusion centers and their local police training academy to assess the current level of interaction. Through a comparative study, the researcher identified three specific areas in which fusion centers and their law enforcement counterparts can be more effectively integrated: knowledge of collection priorities, feedback, and communications. By increasing integration in the three areas identified, fusion centers would improve the quality of intelligence they disseminate.

Anna C. Stites
Program: Intelligence Studies: Capstone-Thesis: Master of Arts (MA)
Awarded: November 2014
Capstone Instructor: Dr. Philip Vos Fellmon
Abstract: This study is a bifurcated project. In the first portion of the project, the traditional analytical framework for propaganda is viewed through the lenses of the history of Islam, the theoretical framework of radicalization, and the discipline of applied linguistics, and is then adapted into a new analytical framework tailored specifically toward analyzing English-language jihadist propaganda. This tailored analytical framework includes components regarding the context of the jihadist organization, an assessment of the propaganda, and an assessment of the organization as a threat, and is based in Open-Source intelligence (OSINT) collection practices. Next, in the second section of the project, the English-language propaganda of the Islamic State, including both written and video media, is analyzed using the framework developed in the first section. From that analysis, the author is able to draw conclusions regarding the context, propaganda practices, and potential threats posed by the organization, culminating in an example of the policymaker recommendations that can be derived from an intelligence analysis conducted using this framework.

Michael James Alvord
Program: Intelligence Studies: Capstone-Thesis: Master of Arts (MA)
Awarded: May 2013
Capstone Instructor: Dr. Robin Thompson
Abstract: A person’s life is comprised of defining experiences. From these experiences the basis for bias, personality and traits are formed which guide the decision-making process. Political leaders routinely make decisions regarding national and international policy, drawing on their prior experiences. With the numerous impacts on decision-making, it is essential to identify reliable factors that influence decisions, which can be analyzed. This paper demonstrates how bias, personality and behavior traits influence effective decision-making. The study utilized psychobiography profiles, the Lockwood Analytical Method for Prediction (LAMP) and the review of operational case studies to determine if a political leader’s profile can provide definable, reliable indicators as to the viability of the operation.

M. Carter Matherly
Program: Intelligence Studies: Capstone-Thesis: Master of Arts (MA) CONC Terrorism Studies
Awarded: August 2013
Capstone Instructor: Dr. Nicole Burtchett
Abstract: This work explores the need and benefits of including social psychology in Red Teaming practices. The work also calls into question many of the current practices attributed to Red Teaming and critically analyses them for relevancy. Alternative Analysis has no common basis on which to build its processes. This has invariably crippled appropriate and productive Red Team application. By founding Red Teaming principals on a basis of threat replication, social psychology Adversarial Analysis techniques are identified as Red Teaming’s operational core. This study offers a comprehensive structure for Alternative Analysis and a common approach based definition for Red Teaming. The applied research of social psychology alongside Adversarial Analysis techniques reveals the understanding of an enemy’s mindset and perceptions is needed to effectively replicate a selected adversarial target. The study concludes with insight into Social Identity Theory and postulates an analytical structure for application to adversarial surrogacy for the purposes of Red Teaming.

James Patrick Welch
Program: Intelligence Studies: Capstone-Thesis: Master of Arts (MA)
Awarded: June 2013
Capstone Instructor: Dr. Joseph DiRenzo III
Abstract: From computers to satellites, sophisticated technological development has touched, modified and enhanced the daily existence of mankind in all walks of life. The worlds of intelligence and defense have not been exempted from such influence. These two “cousins,” in fact, encompass some of the foremost pioneers, researchers, developers and first hand users of said techno logy. Today, a vast array of technological systems has become available to both the US Intelligence Community and the military in order to perform their missions safely and efficiently. One such platform is that of the unmanned aircraft system (UAS). It consists of two variants; the UAV (unarmed) intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) version and the weaponized, unmanned combat air vehicle (UCAV). The focus of the research is primarily centered upon the armed, UCAV versions; the Predator and Reaper platforms. The purpose and intent of this research is to examine the current literature on the subject and shed light upon the various legal, ethical, moral and technological ramifications and limitations. The study also seeks to clarify the advantages and disadvantages, surrounding the use of such deadly and sophisticated unmanned technology.